Problem, resolution and renewed focus
Sunday, December 11, 2005Here's Web 2.0 from my perspective. I can see an evolution continuum where the web has developed over many cycles of problem, resolution and renewed focus. It's happened over and over again.
The cycle
The cycle involves first solving a problem in such a way that makes it trivial to deal with, this allows an explosion of grown as new opportunities are revealed. This then highlights the next big hurdle as growth begins to create pressure. So I prefer to see Web 2.0 as evolution not revolution. Here is a simplified version of what I mean.
| Problem | Solution | allowed focus on | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HTML is too technical > | HTML Editors & Site building tools > | The Home page |
| 2 | Maintenance and management difficult for large catalogs > | Use of databases > | Publishing |
| 3 | Publishing not efficient or cost effective > | Just in time publishing, browser based interfaces, templating and content management systems > | Content |
| 4 | Brochure-ware websites, empty portals > | Cluetrain Manifesto > | User experience |
| 5 | Browser stagnation, user experience lacking > | Rich Clients &
Mozilla > | Ways to consume information |
| 7 | The website concept is limited - ways to consume information other than reading web pages are needed > | Web 2.0, application frameworks, transparent data formats > | Participation and application of aggregated information into useful areas |
Of course there are many more elements in this story, like the birth and evolution of search engines, P2P technology and so on, but it's the way I see the web growing. Doug Bowman was right when he said the web is not even out of alpha. The way I see it, we're all just working through the prototype, ironing out all the wrinkles.
But what's to come?
I think this guy is a pretty clever dick to be thinking ahead of the curve like he is. Identity 2.0 I can see becoming big very soon. But again, it's the same progressive cycle. Now that we can create and share so much information with ease, the identity problem becomes visible.
And once that problem is solved? When identity and ownership are secure what will that allow us to focus on? We might be seeing the birth of the next wave right now:
- The increasing impact of the web on the real world, and localisation and map interfaces are big right now.
- A blurring of the boundary between the web and the browser.
- Development of frameworks to allow applications to run remotely and locally.
- Mature web services, transparent data formats, solidification of identity and ownership of information, reliable mobility.
- The move of all user-land software to the web, the end of software as a commodity.
But that is still small time thinking, I'm sure something much more surprising and exciting is waiting around the bend.
No comments yet